Nickel masih kuat

CLOSE TO CLOSE: Nickel prices rise through kerb on potential Philippines ore export curb
September 03, 2014 - 18:15 GMT Location: London

Nickel prices rose back above $19,000 per tonne in kerb trading on the London Metal Exchange on Wednesday September 3, as prices reacted to the possibility that the nickel-rich Philippines will follow Indonesia in banning ore exports.
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Posisi skrg INCO 4335 bid +235 (5.6%) dahsyat!

buat yg suka mining, ini JP morgan sdh buat analisa ttg nickel price akan naik terus :




We assume coverage of the ASEAN nickel sector with a positive outlook,
based on J.P. Morgan’s expectation that nickel prices could hit 12-month
highs in 2H15. Our base-case assumption is that the reversal of Indonesia’s
nickel ore ban is unlikely, and J.P. Morgan sees nickel prices rising further
throughout most of CY15. Mining stocks have outperformed nickel prices
YTD, and we see continued prospects for outperformance of market indices as
base metal prices move higher. On average, nickel producers are still trading
at discounts to historical average multiples. Our preference is to stick with the
pure-play miners INCO IJ and NIKL PM.
 Global deficit emerges, bullish for nickel prices. We expect demand to
grow steadily in FY14-15, at 4-6% y/y globally (China: 6-10% y/y growth),
with supply gaps persisting until the beginning of 2016, assuming new
capacity comes online by then; we expect 172k tons of nickel smelters to
start operation in 2014-16 in Indonesia, with 80% of the capacity in FY16.
Based on this, we forecast that the deficit will peak in FY15 and nickel
prices will see 12-month highs in 2H15.
 Near-term pricing upside supports margins. ANTM derives 33% of
EBITDA from nickel sales, while INCO and NIKL derive nearly 100%.
NIKL is the lowest-cost producer and highest-volume grower. We expect all
three companies to generate more liquid balance sheets by end-2016, with
NIKL and INCO both becoming net cash. We estimate that a 1% increase in
nickel prices equates to an earnings impact of 1.5%, 2.6% and 1.6% in
FY15E for NIKL, INCO and ANTM, respectively.
 All-around positive catalysts. Two major top-down catalysts move nickel
and stock prices: (1) signs of a reversal in rising LME nickel inventories;
and (2) nickel markets moving into deficit sometime in FY15. Meanwhile,
company-specific catalysts include cost savings and production expansion
(INCO) and volume growth (INCO and NIKL). ANTM has a lower returns
profile and higher B/S gearing. Set for more outperformance. We believe the pure-play miners INCO
(assuming coverage at OW) and NIKL (initiating coverage at OW) offer the
best exposure to the space, as we project that their earnings would most
directly benefit from rising nickel prices and a relatively benign cost
outlook. We assume coverage of ANTM at UW, as we see a more
significant improvement in returns only in FY16. J.P. Morgan’s view is that
any near-term weakness in nickel prices would be temporary.

Ok nice share Yu